Twilight Earth Cop15 Journalist Ann Danylkiw live reporting from The Climate Express.
It’s the end of the day, and I’m knackered (Brit-glish for exhausted). I couldn’t sleep the last two nights for excitement. Today’s train trip from Brussels, at 8am, to Colgne, through Hamburg, now two hours out from Copenhagen (21.25 as I write, listening to Theory of Machines by Ben Frost, if you must know) has definitely lived up to expectations.
There is definitely the sense in the press carriage (not to mention the entire train) that we are about to be close observers of history. Something will be written and rewritten and rewritten ad infinitum, about what happens in Copenhagen. The history of these next two weeks will be rewritten so many times that I will be sick to death of hearing about it when I’m my mother’s age, I can feel it. Cop15 will become a cliche, but a cliche for what is still unclear.
Either we, as a species will fall flat on our collective rears or we will triumph. We are about to usher in an enlightenment or relive a modern version of the dark ages.
I’m the kind that doesn’t like to plan my future– too much. Though I firmly believe in picking a direction and moving towards it, damn the outcome. In that spirit I’m going to pick a direction for the next 14 days. Ready?
The BASICs will come close to walking out and stalling the talks.
Depending on who you listen to, climate A & M (adaptation and mitigation) will cost €40-100 billion annually. Some figure in that range will be promised but like the promised Glen Eagles aid, not be delivered by any country except maybe China.
Despite their preparations, the Danish police will not arrest any climate activists (and in not doing so show up the British police, which will make my twiend @jamiepotter smirk).
India and developing countries (I distinguish here emerging markets from developing countries) will make a fuss about having to “promise” economic development carbon intensity that deviates from an estimated business as usual, but in the end do it in the spirit of symbolism.
The negotiations will focus so much on carbon intensity and greenhouse gas emissions targets that no one will remember to talk about water intensity.
The issue of climate migrant rights will remain a third rail and will not be mentioned.
The biggest row (Brit-glish for ruckus) of the entire Summit will be between NGO’s which dispute greenhouse gas emissions reduction methods: CCS and nuclear inclusion in green energy strategy versus the purists.
Carbon offset regulation will be lacking, the CDM market will continue to be layered in bureaucracy leaving room for exploitative wealth creation via voluntary markets– markets will be left to integrate regionally, the biggest profits to made in Asia.
And I will have the time of my life, sleep little, only remember to eat when my head starts to spin, and collapse gratefully into a seat at Mildred’s for a proper vegetarian meal on the evening of 22 December, when I return to London.
That’s it. Stay tuned!
xAnn
About Ann:
Economist by training, aspiring journalist in reality. Geek. Citizen of the World, legal resident of Wisconsin (yeah, go ahead and chuckle).
I will be covering Cop15 negotiations for solveclimate.com, simpleearthmedia.com, and beyondprofit.com. Watch those spaces!
Her website is worldcolouredglasses.blogspot.com
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GO GIRL, i was a bit of an activist myself years ago, did marches for CND, Animal cruelty etc. Joints a bit too knackered now. I wish you all the best, lets hope for a good result but I’m sorry to say I don’t think so as people are too greedy and w’ont give up their lifestyles.