Analysis Finds Global Crop-Based Biofuels Production Overestimated by 100%

A new study of agricultural biofuels shows that global yields of crop-based feedstock production are overestimated by 100% for many crops, and up to 150% for some, bringing some sobering news to the booming industry of ethanol and biodiesel producers.

Researchers from the University of Wisconsin and University of Minnesota published their study this week in the journal Environmental Research Letters. The analysis used data from 238 regions and 20 different biofuel crops, and found that the current estimates were predicted by yields from the US and Europe, not by using regionally-specific data.

“Our analysis shows that existing, commonly-accepted biofuel yield estimates become highly unrealistic as agricultural biofuels productions expands across the world. Even if we take an `optimistic’ view of global yield data, it is difficult to imagine how these yields could be achieved at a large scale in the near future. Comparing previously-reported biofuel yields to actual median yields in developing countries we see even larger overestimates.”

Results from data on barley, cassava, castor, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower all show that previous yields were overestimated by at least 100%, with wheat–ethanol and groundnut–biodiesel estimates having been overestimated by 150% or more. This new research should help with future estimations of yields, and by using geographically-specific data, farmers may be able to better use existing cropland for feedstock production.

The study concludes:

“The intention of this study is to reset the global expectations surrounding agricultural biofuels to a more realistic starting point, not to provide the final word on the debate. We expect existing trends in the production and consumption of agricultural crops to continue, including: annual increases in yields, the expansion of agricultural frontiers into natural ecosystems, and growth in consumption due to rising affluence in developing countries.”

The full text is here: ‘Resetting global expectations from agricultural biofuels’

Image: BinaryApe at Flickr under Creative Commons License

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