Even if the lowest temperature rises occur under Global Warming, the Amazonian rainforest is going to suffer catastrophic damage.
The damage will be so severe that it will cause irreversible changes to the world’s weather patterns, which is expected to bring more storms, floods and heat waves to Britain.
Up to 40 per cent of the rainforest will be lost if temperature rises are restricted to 2C, which most climatologists regard as the least that can be expected by 2050.
Climate change researchers issued this assessment of the forest’s fragility after discovering a time-lag in the effects of temperature rises on the forest.
It had previously been thought that the trees and other vegetation, and the vast range of animals living among them, would be safe if temperatures rose no more than 2C. Researchers have now found that even 2C will destroy large tracts of the forest.
A 3C rise is likely to result in 75 per cent of the forest disappearing and a 4C rise, regarded as the most likely increase this century unless greenhouse gas emissions are greatly reduced, will kill off 85 per cent of the forest.
Chris Jones, of the Met Office Hadley Center in Exeter, told a scientific conference in Copenhagen that 20 to 40 per cent of the forest will be killed off by 2050 if there is a 2C rise.
“We are committed to losing a fair degree of the forest,” Dr Jones told scientists. “Everything above 1C commits us to some forest loss.”
Until Dr Jones presented his findings it had been assumed that the Amazonian rainforest was safe from severe climate-related loss until temperatures rose more than 3C. However, the slowness of forests to respond to change hid the likely real impact.
Peter Cox, of the University of Exeter, said of the finding that at least a fifth of the Amazonian rainforest was almost certainly doomed. “Ecologically it would be a catastrophe and it would be taking a huge chance with our own climate. The tropics are drivers of the world’s weather systems and killing the Amazon is likely to change them for ever. We don’t know exactly what would happen but we could expect more extreme weather,” Professor Cox said.
Our manipulation of the environment has been so drastic and so severe that we are just beginning to understand the implications of what we are doing. Unfortunately, in many cases, it is too late. Some, but not all of the Global Warming manifestations are reversible.
We are already seeing animal and human migration patterns due to man made Global Warming. We are already seeing the effects of the increased severity and frequency of storms and flooding as a result of man made Global Warming. We are seeing previously unknown effects on our planet every day, that we have caused, and we are just learning, much too slowly, how these effects impact us.
Learn, share, and live wisely.
Source: Times Online
photo credit: dailyinvention
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{ 36 comments… read them below or add one }
Hi Twilight
Thanks for all the updates – this is a shocking and frightening report. Lets hope all these reports focus climate change policy for the globe in Copenhagen this year.
By the way, there was a positive forest regeneration on TED last week, I mention it on my blog – maybe you have seen it
Cathy
Cathy, I’ll check it out. http://www.ecoartnotebook.com (jottings, notes, projects that inspire; collected by Cathy Fitzgerald)
Your right, shocking and frightening. I hope that people don’t become glossed over to this type of news. We each can, and must, make a difference.
Adam
Hi Twighlight,
This report is just stunning. We are taking a proactive approach to preventing that level of devastation. The world MUST pay attention to these reports and decide what kind of future they want.
Dan T
TreeBanker
Dan,
Thanks for stopping by. As you know, I’ve been following you and what you do over at Twitter. You said it right when you said that the world must decide what kind of future they want. Unfortunately, many of the people who are vested in it’s destruction don’t give a damn because they wont be around to see the full scale effect that it has on humanity. These are people with no conscience and no soul, willing to sell the birth right of the human race for a decade or two of oppulant living.
Were trying to change that, and I know that you are too.
Keep up the good fight Dan, your doing great!
Hello Adam, another great post and the situation with the Amazon rain forest has gotten even worse since I posted on the same subject last August, http://tinyurl.com/aaro65.
I thought the Brazilian government had started a crash program on “saving the rain forests”, last fall.
But with current economic conditions, and ethanol production is way down for Brazil, then money is going to out weight the environment. More ethanol and palm oil demand means destroying the rain forests. Its not global warming or climate change killing the forests, its the clear cutting and complete burning of land to grow more sugar cane and palm plants that is the killing machine.
Thanks again and wishing you the best.
Best personal regards,
Steven R. Mason
Chemically Green
“Green Solutions for today”
cg
Pretty sad dude. Personally, I think we have gone well beyond the “point of no return” already!
RT
http://www.privacy.at.tc
If you just consider the rainforest in the Amazon basin, this is a region about 2000×3000 km, ranging from 0m to 400m above sealevel. Do you really think, the whole place has *exactly* the same temperature (within 1 degree) and 2 degrees more will kill it completely?
That’s nonsense. You have a range of temperature zones there which will possibly move a few hundred km when temperatures rise.
Besides, if you look at the temperature curves e.g. of Manaus, you find fluctuations variations from 23 to 33 degrees. A 2deg increase will men that the values will range from 25 to 35 degreed. And all trees there will suddenly drop dead? Hardly plausible. Most living beeings will not even notice such a small change.
Gosh, when you read those panic reports, don’t you use your head to do the slightest plausability considerations?
Very good article. It’s scary what lies in store for mankind in the next 100 years. Maybe we will see significant changes in the next 20 years, I believe that we will. We need to take action now.
Thanks for all the updates – this is a shocking and frightening report. Lets hope all these reports focus climate change policy for the globe in Copenhagen this year..
This of course is my opinion, sorry if I offend anyone…
How hillarious is it that we are all using things like computers and electricity which are contributing to the greenhouse gasses to keep going over the same crap. Every day there are at least a dozen “new” articles about the planet going to hell, and they all say the same thing, yet we all feel the need to go online and throw in our 2 cents. It would be interesting to catalog all of these articles (and comments about them) that exist on the net, and figure out how much of a footprint they’ve created. How many new websites for saving the planet have sprung up, how much carbon has been created transporting environmentalists all over the globe to discuss the production of GH gasses.
So how do we fix earth?
Simple, less people = less CO2 production. Ecosystem’s have a way of repairing themselves, in this case the planet is going to make itself slightly inhabitable for a great many people in certain regions of the globe (regardless of our actions), these people will naturally want to move somewhere habitable – away from the equator. Surely the countries they move to will eventually close the gates, potentially causing a war, resulting in less people. No matter what the planet will win, she’s bigger, stronger, older, and smarter than us. We have an opportunity to right now to plan for the stabilization process, instead we’re focused on the losing battle of trying to defeat the nature of our planet.
Snicker. Yes, the world will melt, we will all die. Except, the scenario is not desert, but a “green house” effect. Essentially the predictions are for a much wetter world, not drier. Warmer and wetter. That means the opposite effect, not killing trees, but plant growth in what is now the desert. The world would blossom, and we could support 20 Billion people instead of 7 billion. The horror!!!!
Hi all
Still seems to be a lot of confusion about climate change – see recent reports from latests scientists gathering this week at buildup to COP15, climate change world summit meeting this Dec. http://en.cop15.dk/
By the way, hope you are all going to watch the ‘Age of Stupid’ this Sunday, http://www.ageofstupid.net/
Cathy
Is this such a shock? For some perhaps, but people in tune with the weather and done a little homework on what our species is up to will find no surprise.
What will kill the rainforest is lack of rainfall. All it takes is 2.6 degree temp rise to stop those raindops hitting the ground. Then the ground gets dry, warms more and it becomes a sheety feedback loop.
Perhaps what’s really frightening is that an incredible amount of carbon is stored in the rainforest floor. When the forest dies, guess where this new co2 is going to go? …sorry no prizes.
We have to smarten up our act from the ground up, otherwise?
Sam,
@samotage
>>All it takes is 2.6 degree temp rise to stop those raindops hitting the ground<<
Do you remember when climate ’scientists’ claimed that the temperature increase would intensify thunderstorms and make them more frequent?
Now some people make up the complete opposite opinion, even with digits behind the comma!
We have way to many fools here who don’t know waht they are talking about. Use your common sense befor you post such a BS
Clearly bdforever doesn’t live in a drought affected area, or for that matter a flood affected region, is happier insulated inside his air conditioned V8 and energy inefficient office and home.
Mate, you need to get out more, stop cheering the speakers at the deniers conference, and seek to understand what is actually going on in the world.
you fools.. we are all doomed.. its too late!! 2012…
OG, you are speaking of course of the Aztec calendar ending in 2012. I’m sorry, but I don’t give up that easily. Drop me a note in 2013.
samotage: do you want to indicate that I can claim the biggest BS if I live in a region which is affected by floods/droughts? That might explain some comments in this forum…
Sorry samo, your claim that a temperature increase of 2.6 degrees will stop all rainfalls is just nonsense in this generality. No serious scientist or even a slightly educated person would dare to make such claim.
So, take off your rubber boots and stop making facts up. It is people like yoo make the climate discussion so ridiculous.
Is this from uncontrolled land clearing fo timber needs, invasive farm needs, or truly the ongoing uncorabarated Global warming theories?
Lucien,
All of the above, except you need to change the term “uncorabarated” to “collaborated.” There is nothing “un” about it. Science has proven these models.
bdforever, I can’t recall the exact source life is too short to spend half my day on a hunt. however this absolutely matches my observations, in a part of the world where rainfall Is an obsession for many people.
The fact is, a cloud that will only produce rain if it’s temperature is at a certain point, which will vary depending on the cloud, it’s moisture content, ambient humidity and temperature. So take that cloud, and point where it will produce rain, i.e. condense the vapour and the rain falls. As the drops form, they get bigger if the temperature below the cloud producing the raindrops is higher than a threshold, the raindrops if small enough will convert back into vapour. Ever been inside a cloud? They are wet, as this cycle of vaporisation an condensation inside the cloud as it swirls about.
All the time, it can be seen on the radar, the rain clouds approach over the water, the land, raining. As soon as they approach the city, which is hotter – typically abut two and a half degrees, guess what? The rain stops. Interestingly, the only rain we tend to get in Melbourne these days is overnight, where the temperature is cooler, and the clouds can do their thing. As soon as it passes 8:00 am, and the day warms, guess what? It stops.
It’s not just lack of rainfall that will kill the rainforest. We’ve had over the past few years incredible fires that have consumed the parched and baked forests. While our recent brushfires have had much media attention because of the human toll, think back to 1998 when the world begin to burn, through parts of Asia, Borneo and Malaysia. Just about every year, we have massive forest fires. 2 years ago, they burnt all summer, blanketing Melbourne in smoke 4 of 7 days each week. There wasn’t the death toll, but more land was burnt in these events.
In my opinion, this isn’t a discussion, it’s a fact. We can observe the impacts of our actions all about us. All that’s needed is to take a good look, and seek an understanding.
Samotage,
just jumping in to tell you that I concur with everything that you have said. Sound reasoning, and to take your last statement one step further, oft times it is when we stop looking, that we start seeing.
Adam
Sure. That’s why that hottest regions on earth are the dryest…
Really high temperatures and torrential rainfalls. Even so much that they call them ‘rainforest’.
Oh… wait! I forgot the jungles.
Check your physics 101: warmer air can hold more water, which condenses to more intense rainfalls, creating more intense thunderstorms. Most scientists expect heavier rainfalls with temperatur increase.
There is no direct relation between temperature and quantities of rainfall. Your 2.6 degree claim ist straightforward nonsense to the point of absurdity.
That’s the problem with these climate discussions: we have way too many people making up the most stupid things which everyone repeats if they just sound catastrophic enough.
We should take a serious action for all about because it’s could be very dangerous for coming days. Please we needs some tips to stop it.
Thanks,
Rakesh,
We’re working on protecting and replanting as much Rainforest as possible. It is a monumental task but with the will of the people of the planet a lot can be done.
We have a 10 year goal of replanting 250 million acres of deforested land in the tropics worldwide.
If you’re interested in finding out more, you can learn about our campaign at: http://bit.ly/lzeMZ
Thanks for your concern.
Dan T
@TreeBanker
millions of years after mankind as died off, the earth will still be alive and thriving
Yes it will. Environmentalism isn’t about saving the planet. It’s about saving ourselves.
Hey, who just told me that “hot equals dry”?
I just watched the reports about the flooding in Australia.
I guess, it became suddenly much colder there
…seems bdforever still isn’t paying attention.
Perhaps if you ever had a drink with ice in it you may understand. It’s old news now, but the Wilkinson Ice Sheet in Antarctica is breaking up: http://bit.ly/kiY2X
Oh, and the flooding in Queensland is in fact coming from a system that’s driving in over the hot equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Sam.
It’s nice to see how you guys weasel around the critical points.
First you guy whine me about droughts in Australia due to climate heating. (e.g. samotage 03.16.09 at 5:54 pm in this thread)
And a few weeks later, the Aussies in their oh-so-overheated continent get flooded by torrential rainfalls. If there’s a god, he likes to joke on the climate acitivists
But instead of admitting something was wrong, now Australia does not count anymore. Now it’s Antarctica.
And when Antarctica does not offer any interesting news anymore, it’s back to Australia and the dying rainforest.
Some guys have the learning ability of a piece of rock. If they were just as verbose…
bdforever,
Lets see, Global Warming causes vegetation to die and deforestation. Wild fires burn and take out the rest of the vegetation. It rains hard on the flat pan and flash floods. You’re right, makes no sense to me!
Wow, it’s a good think that smart folks like you know how to do the thinking for the uneducated, suite and tie wearing folks like me!
Enjoy your Memorial Day and don’t forget to take a great big toke off you’re SUV’s tailpipe on your way to your to the flat earth society meeting. (Dude)
Adam
Its kinda amusing reading bdforever’s posts. He pops in from time to time, has a bleating denial whine then interestingly never seems to leave a name, a twitter name, website or other calling card…
I do wonder who he’s lobbying for – it kinda strange that he hangs about and even feels compelled to contribute to this forum, even to a thread that lost activity some time ago. Perhaps this is part of big oil’s new SM fail campaign?
Fact is mate, I’m not weasaling about anywhere. I am in fact actively doing stuff to solve our problems, like Adam here and many others in this forum.
Personally I don’t whine and I don’t whinge. I observe and report my observations, which I have been making for some time. I don’t think you live down under, but every time Antarctica has had a big melt, we’ve had a cool summer, and peculiar weather coming out of it.
I am genuinely concerned about what we as the human race have done. I’ve got kids, which introduces a new level of responsibility, and it’s far better to be engaged in doing something about the problem than wasting away in “denial”.
Sam.
@samotage
…and it’s getting even better…
Now it seems that the global warming has stopped, at least for South America. If you see here:
http://www.seattlepi.com/national/1102ap_lt_brazil_floods.html?source=rss
You’ll notice that the Brazilian rainforest is suffering the worst flooding in several years. Keep that in mind when you read the first posts which claim that “warm equals dry”…
It’s amazing how people react when they are proven wrong. No, I’m not a sinister agent of some evil oil company. I’m an advocate of logical thinking with scientific knowledge and a sufficient dose of scpeticism.
I survived the BSE plague, the possible nuclear war, the possible atomic energy disaster, SARS, bird flu, the Ozone hole and a few other disasters with a prognosis of billions of fatalities. According to the the prophets of doom, I should have died several times by now. Instead I’m driving my car that runs on oil that ran out 20 years ago (remember the Club of Rome?) through forests that refuse to die out since 1990.
Anybody with a long-term memory will automatically become a sceptic…
Great string guys,
I have to agree with Sam here.
I’ve been watching bdforever’s comments, and I was about to post to Adam to thank him for taking the time to address bd’s inane comments.
Bd’s comments are such typical denier rhetoric. I just can’t waste my time explaining the big picture to someone who has so obviously has a VERY small perspective of the planet.
My sense is that bd is just another contrarian. If the world believes the sky is blue, bd and company will argue to the rafters that it is green.
Leave the deniers in the dust, their grandchildren will be grateful for your work to save the environment they will live in.
Dan T
@TreeBanker
Thanks Dan,
I’ve now officially fallen off my chair, and rolling about on the floor in laughter.
Thanks bdforever for amusing my morning internetz.
Sam,
@samotage
It is so important that we protect these so important inhabitat’s Once they have gone they have gone and nothing can bring them back.